The steel and raw materials market is entering a key testing phase. Despite short-term optimism from macro headlines, underlying fundamentals remain weak. Traders are advised to maintain a disciplined “sell on rallies” strategy, gradually building short positions in Rebar, Iron Ore, and Coking Coal while strictly managing risk and adhering to stop-loss levels.

As of October 15, 2025, the steel market is shifting focus from macroeconomic news to industry fundamentals, with weak demand and rising inventories weighing on spot prices. Broader commodities show more down days than up, and technical indicators, including the Wenhua Commodity Index, suggest persistent downside pressure. While production costs provide some support, the market is likely to stabilize with sideways movements in the short term. Traders are advised to remain cautious, favoring strategies such as selling on rallies and shorting rebounds, as downward risks for steel prices continue to loom.

The steel market is entering September with clear divergence: raw materials like iron ore stay resilient and HRC holds firm, while rebar lags under mounting delivery pressure. This imbalance, coupled with rising costs, is squeezing mill margins and shifting output toward coils. Overall, the trend favors weakness in rebar, leaving rallies as opportunities to reinforce short positions.

In summary, steel and commodity markets are currently buoyed by strong macro tailwinds, including rising expectations of a Fed rate cut and sustained gains in A-shares, while iron ore faces additional upside risk from supply disruptions. Although near-term trading is expected to remain range-bound, the upper limit may shift higher, with strategy favoring shorting on rallies while monitoring upcoming macro events, especially the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls.

Overall, the steel market remains under clear downward pressure, with rising inventories and weak raw material performance signaling limited upside potential. While short-term support exists at 3,100 CNY/ton, any rebound is likely to be temporary, and strength should be used as an opportunity to build short positions.

In summary, although the expanded U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs add a mild bearish tone to market sentiment, their impact is expected to be limited. The steel market is likely to continue fluctuating within a narrow range this week, with rebar futures trading between 3,150–3,250 CNY/ton, suggesting a short-term environment favoring cautious range-bound strategies over aggressive directional bets.

In summary, the steel market remains in a consolidation phase, with prices for rebar, hot rolled coil, and iron ore fluctuating within well-defined ranges. Short-term trading should focus on capturing profits at the extremes of these ranges, while avoiding large directional bets until clearer market catalysts emerge.

Overall, the market remains range-bound despite coking coal’s new highs and iron ore’s contract rollover, with our strategy focused on shorting rebar and selectively shorting iron ore at key resistance levels. Position sizing and stop-loss settings are designed to control downside risk while aiming for a favorable risk-reward profile.

Coking coal futures surged after China introduced stricter coal production and safety policies, boosting sentiment across the ferrous market. However, the rally lacked follow-through, as weak downstream demand continues to weigh on steel prices. While raw material costs provide some support, the overall market remains range-bound. In the short term, a cautious, range-trading approach is advised until demand fundamentals show signs of recovery.

Overall, the steel market faces mounting pressure as both domestic policy disappointments and negative overseas economic data dampen sentiment. With supply and demand stuck in a fragile balance and technical indicators signaling weakness, prices are likely to remain under consolidation or trend lower. Traders should remain cautious, prioritizing short positions on price rebounds and securing profits near support zones.

Yesterday’s sharp declines across previously oversold sectors—such as coking coal, coke, glass, soda ash, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon—signaled that the recent wave of valuation recovery has largely run its course, with significant capital outflows confirming a shift into a consolidation phase. This week, markets are closely watching three major macro events: China’s Politburo Economic Work Conference (with limited expectations for new stimulus), U.S.-China trade talks in Sweden (still surrounded by uncertainty), and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision (expected to hold steady). Against this backdrop, steel futures remain range-bound, with rebar prices fluctuating between 3,230 and 3,280 CNY/ton. With low policy momentum and unresolved trade risks, the steel market is likely to trend into a gradual downward consolidation. Strategy stays consistent: sell on strength.

This week’s steel market is shaped by several key global events, including China’s Politburo Economic Work Conference, ongoing U.S.-China trade talks, the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision, and pending bilateral trade agreements. These factors contribute to a cautious and range-bound consolidation phase in steel futures. After recent rallies, coking coal is stabilizing between 1,100 and 1,200 CNY/ton, while rebar prices are expected to fluctuate within a moderate range below strong resistance levels. Traders are advised to focus on shorting rebar and iron ore during price rallies, watching critical support and resistance levels to navigate the market’s near-term volatility.

Steel futures showed signs of stalling as coking coal’s cost-driven rally lost momentum and broader commodity strength began to fade. Trading volumes and open interest declined, reflecting profit-taking and cautious sentiment. The market now hinges on three uncertain catalysts: the Ministry of Industry’s pending industrial support measures, potential production curbs tied to a national parade in early September, and the Politburo’s end-of-month meeting. If anticipated policies underdeliver, a market correction could emerge in early August.

The steel futures market on July 23 continues to be driven by soaring coking coal prices, which have hit the daily limit for the third time due to regulatory crackdowns on overproduction. With cost pressures mounting, the entire black commodity sector is reacting strongly to policy news and expectations. Traders are advised to stay cautious: futures buying is discouraged, while spot buyers should operate with short-term strategies. Shorting opportunities are not yet ideal, though iron ore presents the most potential. Risk management and flexible tactics remain critical in this fast-moving, sentiment-driven market.

Steel futures surged on strong policy support and raw material gains, with coking coal hitting limit-up and lifting the broader ferrous market. However, rebar and hot-rolled coil showed signs of losing steam, rising only slightly in the night session. While short-term sentiment remains positive, momentum for finished steel appears to be softening, signaling potential range-bound consolidation ahead.

Steel futures continued their upward momentum last week, driven by policy optimism surrounding supply-side reforms, notably efforts to eliminate outdated capacity. While macro meetings delivered mixed signals, bullish sentiment was reinforced by the China-Australia trade boost and MIIT’s stabilization plan. Strong iron-water output, tight coking coal supply, and expected price hikes in coke and billet further energized the market. With basis trading active and growth policies pending implementation, futures are projected to trend upward within a narrow range. Key resistance levels across rebar, hot rolled coil, iron ore, and coking coal remain critical for short-term direction.

On July 18, the ferrous market continued its strong rally, led by iron ore and coking coal. However, despite the momentum, we maintain our short positions in iron ore and rebar based on historical price patterns and risk-reward analysis. With iron ore trading near its historical highs, we see limited downside in case of error and significant upside if the market turns. Discipline in execution and strict stop-losses remain essential as market volatility intensifies.

Iron ore prices rallied sharply on sentiment after the China-Australia Free Trade MoU, pushing futures higher both domestically and in Singapore. However, the surge appears disconnected from underlying fundamentals, with speculative momentum dominating the market. Given the stretched valuations, we see rising short opportunities for iron ore futures, though positions should be managed cautiously.

The recent National Urban Development Conference, despite its high-profile attendance, fell short of market expectations by prioritizing efficiency improvements over new growth stimulus, leading to notable pullbacks in equities and commodities and weakening steel's bullish momentum. While raw material prices, especially coking coal, still provide near-term support, the fading macro narrative suggests steel prices may enter a phase of high-level consolidation with a bearish tilt. In response, we recommend shifting from range-bound strategies to a sell-on-rally approach, avoiding long positions in the short term and considering short setups for potential downside.

The steel market continues to receive strong support from firm coking coal prices, which remain the key stabilizing force amid weak momentum in finished steel. Although finished products lack independent strength, the resilience in raw material prices helps maintain overall stability. On the macro side, China’s June steel export volume declined on a month-on-month basis, signaling that export demand may have temporarily peaked. Additionally, notable increases in aggregate financing and M2 were largely driven by a surge in local government special bond issuance, improving liquidity for infrastructure and municipal projects. However, the impact of this stimulus has been mostly priced in by the market. Looking ahead, the Rebar 2510 main contract is expected to move within the 3090–3150 range, with limited potential to test 3180 unless new catalysts emerge.

The steel futures market showed signs of weakening momentum last Friday, with notable declines in open interest for rebar and hot-rolled coil suggesting profit-taking and reduced speculative activity. In contrast, the dual-coke segment (coking coal and coke) remained firm, continuing to support the ferrous complex. On the technical front, the Rebar 2510 contract closed the week with a moderate gain, though a drop in both volume and open interest points to fading participation. Meanwhile, the January 2026 contract (2601) saw increased open interest, indicating a shift in capital toward longer-term positions. Looking ahead, rebar prices are expected to fluctuate between 3090 and 3150, with only a limited chance of a spike to 3180 unless new drivers emerge. This rotation toward far-month contracts reflects cautious near-term sentiment but growing interest in long-term market themes.

Yesterday, coking coal prices surged by 4%, driven by strong auction results, which led to a significant rise in finished steel prices. While this rally is currently fueled by coking coal's bullish momentum, it's seen as a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal. Despite the ongoing strength in coking coal, the short-term outlook remains bearish, with potential opportunities to short on rallies, though there's still room for further price increases in the coking coal sector.

The steel market remains supported by bullish sentiment, driven by surging coking coal prices and heightened policy expectations. A tightening coal supply and President Xi’s visit to Shanxi have boosted coal futures, lifting the entire ferrous sector. Meanwhile, upcoming NDRC announcements and recent macro signals—particularly around curbing overcapacity—are reinforcing a stable to mildly bullish outlook. In the near term, steel prices are expected to consolidate at high levels with limited downside risk.

Steel futures are currently showing a consolidative, range-bound pattern as enthusiasm around environmental restrictions and supply-side reforms fades. Profit-taking and lower participation suggest rising caution among investors, while overnight tariff news from several countries adds mild pressure. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate within defined ranges, awaiting clearer policy or demand-driven catalysts.

Steel futures posted their strongest rally in three months last week, with the rebar 2510 contract closing up 77 points amid rising trading volume and a surge in bullish positions. Coking coal remained the key driver, supported by increased power demand during peak summer temperatures. With ongoing optimism around potential Supply-Side Reform 2.0 and firm raw material fundamentals, the market is expected to maintain a high-level consolidation or slightly bullish trend in the near term.

Steel futures are currently caught between bullish optimism and bearish caution, as market attention shifts from Tangshan’s environmental curbs to speculation around a potential “Supply-Side Reform 2.0.” Bulls are banking on pro-growth signals from upcoming political events and seasonal demand recovery, while bears highlight persistently weak demand across key sectors and still-elevated steel production. We remain cautious, viewing the recent rally as a technical rebound rather than a sustainable trend. In such volatile conditions, prudent risk management and clear trading conviction are more critical than ever.

Steel prices rose yesterday amid speculation over possible production cuts in Tangshan, but conflicting reports from major industry sources highlight ongoing uncertainty. While SteelHome reported that over half of integrated mills had received restriction notices, Mysteel found no signs of significant curbs. Meanwhile, policy signals from China’s top economic body — emphasizing an end to low-price competition and outdated capacity — have fueled market optimism about long-term reforms. Despite this, the current rally appears policy-driven rather than based on improved fundamentals. The broader trend remains bearish, and traders are advised to short on strength and take profits quickly on any longs.

The steel market has entered a period of consolidation as the recent rally—largely fueled by coking coal strength—loses momentum. With coal prices pulling back and downstream demand remaining weak, the market is caught in a tug-of-war between firm upstream supply and soft consumption. As a result, prices are expected to stay range-bound in the short term, offering limited trading opportunities.

Coking coal led the ferrous complex higher last week, breaking key resistance levels with a strong 6.6% gain and setting the tone for continued short-term strength. Iron ore followed with moderate gains, while rebar and hot-rolled coil lagged behind. The curve shows bullish expectations, with long-dated contracts outperforming despite weakening basis values. Improved sentiment, rising coal prices, and easing U.S. tariff concerns have supported the rally. With key resistance around 3050–3100 in focus, the market is likely to remain firm, especially for raw materials, as macro data and U.S. policy signals shape this week’s direction.

Last night’s surge in the ferrous market was fueled by strong raw material momentum, as hot metal production remained at a historically high 2.4229 million tons, reinforcing confidence in coal and iron ore demand. Coking coal led the rally with a 3.1% jump, followed by iron ore and coke, while finished products like rebar and hot-rolled coil posted more modest gains. Technical indicators highlight robust capital inflow into raw materials, with rising volume and open interest in coal and ore, in contrast to weaker downstream participation. This points to a rally driven more by upstream strength than by end-user demand, suggesting that without follow-through from the finished steel sector, sustainability may be limited. Caution is warranted, and a left-side accumulation strategy may be prudent ahead of any potential rotation or reversal.

Recent safety inspections in Shanxi coal mines and restrictions on Mongolian coal imports have supported coking coal and steel prices, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain manageable with low risk of escalation. Market fundamentals show weak demand and limited upside for coking coal prices, suggesting a short-term range-bound and volatile steel futures market. Traders are advised to remain cautious and patient, considering short positions near resistance levels or waiting for clear breakout signals in the coming weeks.

The recent de-escalation of the Iran–Israel conflict has shifted the market focus back to fundamentals. With geopolitical risk receding and oil losing its upward momentum, steel prices are no longer supported by external shocks. Weak demand and declining new orders suggest the temporary rebound has ended. As the market digests the ceasefire, steel futures are likely to enter a phase of consolidation with a potential downside breakout. A cautious short-selling strategy is advised.

In summary, a volatile 12-hour period in the Middle East—marked by missile strikes, sharp oil price swings, and a surprising ceasefire agreement—has temporarily calmed global markets. With tensions easing and energy costs retreating, the steel market is likely to find short-term stability, supported by improved sentiment and reduced geopolitical risk.

The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have escalated tensions in the Middle East, triggering a geopolitical risk premium across global markets. While a full-scale conflict remains uncertain, oil prices are expected to surge, supporting energy and coking coal prices in the short term. This, in turn, offers temporary support to steel prices despite weak domestic fundamentals such as sluggish demand and limited policy stimulus. Volatility and narrowing price ranges characterize the current steel market. Traders are advised to stay cautious—sell on strength, remain neutral during consolidation, and wait for clear signs before shorting.

In summary, while the medium-to-long-term outlook for steel remains bearish, near-term dynamics suggest a potential rebound. Geopolitical tensions are pushing crude oil—and by extension, raw material costs—higher, while current supply-demand fundamentals remain stable. The recent drop in warehouse receipts further supports a short-term bullish case. Traders are advised to reduce short exposure temporarily and look for higher entry points to re-establish bearish positions.

The steel market faces heightened short-term volatility driven primarily by escalating Middle East tensions. While Iran's missile launch created global headlines, its actual impact remains limited for now, though potential U.S. retaliation poses serious market risks—especially for energy and steel-related commodities. Meanwhile, domestic policy signals and the Fed's dovish stance provide long-term support but little immediate influence. Traders are advised to reduce short positions and stay alert to geopolitical developments, as sudden market swings remain highly possible.

In summary, while energy and commodity markets rallied on heightened geopolitical tensions, the steel sector showed limited bullish follow-through. Coking coal remains relatively strong under crude oil’s influence, but iron ore weakness continues to cap the upside potential for finished steel products. With a range-bound market and diverging raw material trends, the strategy remains to sell into strength rather than chase breakouts.

In summary, easing geopolitical tensions—particularly Iran's signal to engage in nuclear talks—have shifted market focus back to fundamentals, leading to declines in commodities and gains in equities. The steel market remains range-bound, supported by a firm spot-futures basis but facing softening demand. With limited directional momentum, a short-term consolidation phase is expected, and a tactical range-trading strategy is advised.

This week, the steel futures market is expected to stay within a choppy to mildly bullish range, driven primarily by rising crude oil prices amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On the fundamentals side, while production remains high and inventories are still being drawn down, demand is weakening—especially in hot-rolled coil and medium plate—due to a cooling manufacturing sector and ongoing real estate weakness. Seasonal demand softness will further cap any upside. Macro policy remains steady with no immediate stimulus in sight, as markets await potential signals from the late-July Politburo meeting. Technically, the RB2510 contract showed a small-bodied red candle last week, reinforcing a range-bound outlook, with falling open interest and rising volume. Basis remains elevated, particularly in far-month contracts, supporting short-term rebounds. Overall, a range-trading strategy within 2950–3150 is recommended, with a preference for selling into strength given the medium-term bearish view.

The steel market is showing signs of weakness as earlier optimism from U.S.–China trade talks fades and fundamentals take center stage. Despite stable raw material support and limited pressure on steel mill pricing, sluggish end-user demand and high supply levels are driving prices lower. Market sentiment remains cautious, with falling prices, flat trading volumes, and the addition of new U.S. tariffs on steel-related products contributing to a bearish outlook in the short term.

The current market is exhibiting clear range-bound consolidation across all segments. Rebar, for example, has been trading between 2950–3010 for an entire week, with declining volume and open interest indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Raw material prices remain flat, while finished steel products like rebar and HRC are also stuck in narrow ranges. The initial macro boost from U.S.–China trade talks is fading as optimism has been largely priced in. Although reports suggest a framework agreement has been reached, the lack of an official statement from China implies the focus is shifting from tariffs to sector-specific regulatory easing. Ongoing negotiations may extend to issues such as rare earth exports, chip restrictions, aircraft sales, and student visas. Strategically, the current rally appears weak, with limited upside potential; a downward move is likely once the consolidation ends, despite the possibility of a brief upward spike. The core strategy remains: sell into rallies and avoid building long positions.

Steel futures rebounded strongly on June 11, 2025, driven by renewed optimism over China–U.S. trade talks. Raw materials led the rally, with finished steel following, particularly in near-month HRC contracts outperforming rebar. While sentiment echoes the May 12 surge, current fundamentals—especially higher coking coal and coke prices—suggest this rally may peak lower, with targets at 3060 for rebar, 3190 for HRC, and 735 for iron ore. Traders are advised to stay cautious near these levels and consider reducing long positions if momentum weakens without solid fundamental support.

In summary, the steel futures market is showing signs of a fading rebound, with coking coal resuming its leadership in driving bearish sentiment. While demand in key sectors is still holding up, the lack of production cuts and steady hot metal output suggest limited support. With two key reversal windows approaching, the risk of renewed downside is rising. Traders are advised to maintain a sell-on-rally stance, focusing on short setups near the 3000–3050 resistance zone.

In summary, the black steel market is in a temporary rebound but remains range-bound with limited upside. Key upcoming events—such as the Steel Union data release and a timing window next week—could trigger renewed downside. Stabilizing coking coal and strong basis support offer short-term cushioning, but rising global uncertainties and fragile fundamentals suggest the broader downtrend may soon resume. Traders should remain flexible, favoring short-term range strategies while watching for renewed bearish signals.

In short, while bullish headlines like the ¥1 trillion liquidity injection and high-level diplomacy sparked a sharp rally, the move was largely driven by short-covering rather than genuine buying. With the broader downtrend still intact and resistance at 3050 holding firm, this rebound appears emotional, not structural. Caution is warranted—sell-on-strength remains the preferred strategy unless stronger fundamentals emerge.

In summary, while coking coal saw a sharp rebound driven by short-covering rather than real demand, the move lacks long-term conviction. Steel prices may benefit temporarily, but broader direction will depend on underlying fundamentals. With resistance looming and technical signals still bearish mid-term, a cautious, sell-on-rally strategy remains prudent.

Overall, the market is showing signs of stabilization with short-term rebound momentum building, especially in near-month contracts, while longer-term outlooks remain cautious. Although the broader downtrend persists, a technical bounce seems likely, suggesting traders should cautiously reduce shorts and monitor rebound strength before considering re-entry at higher levels.

In summary, while earlier signs pointed to a potential rebound in steel prices, Trump’s surprise tariff hike has decisively tilted the market bearish. Last week’s technicals confirmed this shift, with a sharp price drop, rising open interest, and heavy volume all signaling sustained downward pressure. Without supportive policy measures, the steel market now faces intensified headwinds both at home and abroad.

The ferrous market continues to face pressure from weakening coking coal prices, which are dragging down finished steel products. Nevertheless, strong basis data and stable billet prices suggest short-term downside is limited and a rebound may be imminent. Iron ore’s relative strength also supports the market. Traders should be cautious chasing shorts under current conditions.