• The market is currently experiencing a period of consolidation around the 3200 support level, suggesting a brief pause before potential downward momentum resumes. This temporary support may lead to a phase-bottom formation, with clearer market signals expected around January 20, either before or after the Lunar New Year. In terms of strategy, long-term positioning might present opportunities to enter long positions as the market approaches its bottom, aiming to capitalize on a subsequent rebound. For the time being, the focus should remain on a sell-on-rise strategy, maintaining short positions throughout the consolidation phase while staying vigilant to adjust according to market changes.

    Published On: January 10, 2025By
  • The market continued its downward trend yesterday, breaking the 3230 support level and nearing 3200. Among black metals, coke performed the weakest, while rebar and hot-rolled coils followed with moderate weakness. Iron ore showed relative strength, with the basis between futures and spot prices improving slightly. Looking ahead, the market is expected to continue its downward correction, with support near 3100. The short-term outlook suggests range-bound movement between 3200 and 3250. The strategy is to avoid rushing to exit during market volatility, remaining patient and adjusting positions dynamically while maintaining a longer-term perspective.

    Published On: January 9, 2025By
  • The market recently found support around the 3230 level, which also served as a key point on November 15 when prices rebounded sharply. However, differing external conditions now limit the potential for a similar rebound. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate between 3230 and 3280, with iron ore fluctuating between 745 and 770. As winter storage dynamics intensify and iron ore weakens, the likelihood of further downside increases. Overall, the market is expected to remain within a narrow range, with limited upside potential due to weaker external factors. A cautious approach is recommended, awaiting further market clarity and potential declines.

    Published On: January 8, 2025By
  • The market experienced a brief stir last night following "Trump's tariff news," causing a slight uptick in commodity prices before they quickly normalized, rendering the news largely insignificant. Iron ore continues to weaken, with progressively lower highs and lows, while long-term contracts are seeing larger declines than near-term contracts, suggesting a shift in market structure. This indicates a potential for a downward breakout, with steel prices likely to move lower as sentiment shifts. As the 01 contract nears delivery, volatility is expected to decrease, and supply-demand dynamics will become more apparent. Any policy announcements, such as rate cuts, could cause short-term fluctuations, but otherwise, a direct downward move is anticipated. The strategy remains to sell high and wait for the market to break down.

    Published On: January 7, 2025By
  • Over the weekend, the steel market remained stable with slight weakness, while positive sentiment persisted due to limited inventory and strong price-support intentions from steel mills. Today, a mild rebound in spot prices is expected, with the spot market likely to see gains of 10-30 yuan. Futures trading may remain range-bound between 3250-3330, with 3270 as support and 3340 as resistance.

    Published On: January 6, 2025By
  • The dollar index has surged to its highest level since October 2022, reflecting global market risk aversion, which has strengthened gold and silver while pressuring commodities. Steel prices have yet to fully reflect this impact, but a potential 50-100 point drop may follow delivery. The market operates under strong physical demand but weaker expectations, with iron ore prices under pressure from low winter storage interest and proactive production cuts. Near-term steel price movements are expected to range between 3250-3380, with a possible step-down toward 3100 in the coming weeks. Adherence to disciplined trading strategies remains crucial.

    Published On: January 3, 2025By
  • The steel market is expected to open post-holiday with a slight upward trend, maintaining a range-bound pattern without a significant breakdown. Prices are near the lower boundary of this range, suggesting potential for either a rebound or further decline. Spot prices are likely to stabilize with a mild bullish bias, increasing by 10-30 RMB, while futures are projected to fluctuate between 3280-3330, with 3270 as short-term support and 3340 as the first resistance level. A decisive break above 3340 with volume could push prices toward the next resistance at 3380. Close monitoring of key levels is advised for potential trading opportunities.

    Published On: January 2, 2025By
  • Yesterday, the black metal sector saw a strong rebound, with prices rising and positions being reduced, bringing the market back into its previous consolidation range. Overnight trading showed a slight increase in positions, reflecting a mildly bullish sentiment. However, the market remains range-bound between 3250 and 3380, with 3330 acting as key resistance and 3250 as strong support. Despite an attempt to break 3330, it failed to sustain an upward move. The overall bearish outlook remains unchanged, with limited upside potential, so the strategy continues to favor selling on rallies rather than taking long positions.

    Published On: December 31, 2024By
  • Last week, the market showed a narrow 73-point range, indicating a consolidation phase before a potential trend shift. The weekly bearish candlestick, with a long upper shadow and a small body, suggests volatility contraction ahead of a significant move. Despite a range-bound market on the daily chart (3250-3380), the overall downtrend remains intact, with weaker upward momentum, as seen in the failure to break the 3330 resistance. Iron ore's breakdown below recent lows signals further downside, which could lead steel prices to follow the same downward trajectory. With a weak market structure, further downside movement is increasingly likely.

    Published On: December 30, 2024By
  • Friday saw heightened market volatility as rebar futures surged with over 100,000 additional contracts, reflecting intense bull-bear contention. Despite the activity, prices held steady without a downward breakout, suggesting bearish momentum is still building. Iron ore demonstrated notable weakness, breaking recent lows with increased volume and open interest, which, alongside softness in coking coal and coke, adds downward pressure to steel prices. Strict adherence to trading plans is essential, avoiding impulsive actions and following pre-set entry and stop-loss levels. With iron ore leading the decline, steel products are likely to break lower next week. Updated plans will be shared before Monday's market opening.

    Published On: December 28, 2024By
  • The steel market remained stable on Thursday, with limited price changes across regions. Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures saw brief rebounds but lacked sustained upward momentum, leading to price pullbacks. Market activity was moderate, reflecting a balance between insufficient upward and downward forces. In the spot market, prices are expected to remain steady with minor fluctuations of 10-20 yuan, while futures are projected to trade between 3280-3330, with 3270 as short-term support and 3340 as short-term resistance.

    Published On: December 27, 2024By
  • The market yesterday exhibited "minor range fluctuations with no significant waves," characterized by "near weak, far strong" performance across contracts. This indicates a lack of short-term downward momentum. Among commodities, coke showed gains, iron ore leaned bullish, and finished steel underperformed, reflecting divergent trends.Overall, the current market remains in a range-bound pattern. Patience is key, and opening positions prematurely is not advisable.

    Published On: December 26, 2024By
  • The market remains range-bound between 3250 and 3380, with recent price movements reflecting limited momentum. Despite positive signals from both global markets and domestic developments, such as the National Fiscal Work Conference, the market is not showing a clear trend. In the short term, the outlook suggests the market will continue to trade within this narrow range, with upside potential capped around 3380. A cautious approach is recommended, as opening positions now may offer limited profit potential while exposing traders to unnecessary risks. Patience is key, as clearer opportunities may emerge in the future.

    Published On: December 25, 2024By
  • Monday's market rebound lacked strong momentum. Iron ore prices remained stable, while coking coal saw a decline of over 2% in the night session, adding downward pressure to the broader market. Key observations include iron ore's stability providing market support and the current range-bound trading confined between 3250 (support) and 3380 (resistance). A positive weekly close remains possible if the lower boundary holds. Traders are advised to adopt short-term strategies, focusing on potential tests of key levels within this range.

    Published On: December 24, 2024By
  • The market witnessed a V-shaped rebound last Friday, characterized by a long lower shadow, signaling strong recovery momentum. Increased trading volume with reduced open interest suggests a range-bound consolidation near the lower edge of the previous trading range. Strong fundamentals for finished steel, including low inventory and reduced production, support short-term gains, while high iron ore prices may weigh on steel prices after the rebound. Supply-demand dynamics remain bullish in the short term, with tight spot market supply boosting steel prices. This week, a mild rebound is expected, with rebar resistance at 3380 and support at 3250. A short-term bullish trading strategy is advisable, while keeping a cautious eye on iron ore's impact and supply-demand shifts for timely adjustments.

    Published On: December 23, 2024By
  • The Federal Reserve's recent "hawkish rate cut" has shifted market expectations, causing volatility across capital markets and declines in steel prices due to falling iron ore valuations. Despite this, steel fundamentals remain stable, with limited short-term upside expected and a likelihood of mild downward trends. A sell-on-rallies strategy is advised, emphasizing disciplined risk management and responsiveness to technical and fundamental signals.

    Published On: December 20, 2024By
  • Overview:The December 19th Futures Morning Report offers a comprehensive analysis of the current market situation, focusing on the significant impact of the US Dollar Index's strong performance on commodity prices, with a particular emphasis on iron ore and other commodities. The report examines the market's reaction to changes in capital market expectations, rather than fundamental shifts in the commodities themselves.It highlights the divergence between the decline in futures and the relative strength of the spot market, as indicated by the increase in the basis for rebar and coil. The report identifies iron ore as a key indicator for the black series commodities and notes the current downward trend, advising traders to follow market fluctuations and implement proper risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders.The operational strategy outlined in the report advocates for selling on rallies and maintaining a firm grip on existing short positions, with a strict adherence to the trading plan to capitalize on market movements effectively.

    Published On: December 19, 2024By
  • The morning report highlights the significant influence of iron ore on the futures market, with a focus on its price as a key determinant for market trends. It discusses the critical support level at 786.5 and its implications for the market's direction. The report also outlines a trading strategy that favors selling on rallies and maintaining short positions, reflecting the market's sensitivity to iron ore's performance.

    Published On: December 18, 2024By
  • • Market Outlook: Expectations of a consolidative week with temporary price support.• Key Commodities: Iron ore remains strong amid overall market volatility.• Trading Strategy: Focus on shorting opportunities, with a wait-and-see approach after reducing short positions.• Resistance Levels: Identified for rebar (3480), hot-rolled coil (3650), and iron ore (830).

    Published On: December 17, 2024By
  • This futures market report for December 16th highlights a shift from macro policy to industry fundamentals. It predicts a continued downward trend with market volatility, advising investors to stay committed despite challenges. Key resistance levels for commodities like rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore are provided for strategic planning.

    Published On: December 16, 2024By
  • The December 13th futures market report analyzes recent policy impacts, arbitrage trends, and predicts short-term market peaks for commodities like rebar and hot-rolled coil, with a focus on U.S. unemployment claims influencing Fed rate cut expectations.

    Published On: December 13, 2024By
  • The morning report for December 11, 2024, analyzes the futures market's recent price action and anticipates future trends. It notes the market's retreat after a surge, indicating heavy resistance above. The article suggests a consolidation phase for commodities like rebar, with limited upside due to weakening basis and cooling demand. Iron ore futures are expected to remain weak as steel mills complete winter stockpiling. The market is predicted to fluctuate within a range before the Central Economic Work Conference determines its direction, with a probable downward shift.

    Published On: December 11, 2024By
  • The recent Politburo meeting has injected optimism into the market with its mention of "moderately loose" monetary policy for the first time in 13 years and a focus on "extraordinary" countercyclical adjustments. These rare terms have raised expectations of increased government investment and stronger consumer subsidies, sparking a broad rally across commodities. While the rally reflects optimism about potential measures like interest rate cuts and infrastructure spending, concrete steps are yet to be announced. Short-term trading strategies suggest cautious long positions to capitalize on the current sentiment, while the long-term outlook remains uncertain.

    Published On: December 10, 2024By
  • The market experienced heightened volatility during Friday's night session, breaking the key support level of 3300 with increased volume and open interest. This triggered a breakout entry at 3295, highlighting diverging forces at play. While downward pressure dominates in products like coke, rebar, and hot-rolled coil, iron ore prices exhibit resilience, adding upward support. The faster decline in futures compared to spot prices underscores a strengthening basis effect, while policy uncertainties tied to key upcoming meetings add complexity. Strategic trading calls for close monitoring of support levels, risk balancing through hedging, and staying attuned to policy updates to navigate the evolving market dynamics effectively.

    Published On: December 9, 2024By
  • The steel futures market experienced weak fluctuations yesterday due to contract rollovers and softening policy expectations. A report suggesting a GDP growth target of “around 5%” triggered market pessimism, leading to broad sell-offs and pushing steel prices near their lower limits. However, significant downside risks appear limited before key meetings, as market fundamentals remain stable. Traders are advised to avoid aggressive short positions, prepare for potential declines with risk mitigation strategies, and closely monitor upcoming policy announcements, which could shift market dynamics. Flexibility is essential in navigating this uncertain environment.

    Published On: December 6, 2024By
  • The steel market continues to exhibit volatility, with iron ore showing strength while coking coal and coke weaken. Rebar transactions remain solid, bolstered by regional shortages, and steel mill restocking is anticipated ahead of key meetings. While short-term trends suggest slight bullishness, longer-term price pressure is likely. Strategic patience is recommended—inventory holders can leverage current price increases for profit-taking, while others should await clearer signals from upcoming announcements to optimize market entry.

    Published On: December 5, 2024By
  • Yesterday's iron ore market showed strong performance, consistently hitting new highs by breaking above the 5-day (799) and 10-day (788) moving averages, reaching a peak of 814—just 30 points shy of the post-holiday high of 844. Technical indicators suggest continued upward momentum, possibly driven by strategic moves from major capital players to manipulate market sentiment before key policy meetings. Retail investors are advised to watch rather than buy, while those holding physical inventory can take advantage of high prices to sell. Rebar and iron ore futures are expected to fluctuate within key ranges, requiring strategic caution in a volatile market.

    Published On: December 4, 2024By
  • The market is showing signs of a potential breakout, driven by iron ore as the key catalyst. This momentum is supported by three main factors: early winter restocking by steel mills, expected to conclude by December 20; positive domestic policy expectations ahead of two significant meetings in China; and a favorable international capital environment with a weaker U.S. dollar. Technically, the January rebar contract (RB01) has reversed its trend of reduced positions, gaining 4,309 lots overnight, reflecting strong bullish sentiment. Forecasts suggest RB01 may break the 3,350 resistance level, RB05 could range between 3,450-3,550, and iron ore is likely to exceed 811 and move within the 810-835 range. The market is poised for dynamic shifts with iron ore leading the upward trajectory.

    Published On: December 3, 2024By
  • The futures market is expected to remain range-bound during the ongoing contract rollover, with a fluctuation range of 3250-3390 before completion and 3300-3480 afterward due to price differences between contracts. December's early-to-mid period is likely to see continued oscillations within this range, with a potential dip to 3100 considered a normal market adjustment.

    Published On: December 2, 2024By
  • Yesterday's market rally was driven by expectations for December meetings and a weaker US Dollar. Heavy rollover activity saw volumes double the usual, with the May 2024 contract set to take the lead next week. A "Hanging Man" pattern signals strong resistance at 3,350. Fundamentals show weak supply and demand, with December stockpiling negotiations in focus. Stay cautious and monitor key levels.

    Published On: November 30, 2024By
  • Recent trends show Fridays bringing significant market swings, with the following week's movements confined within Friday's range. Today, cautious planning is key. Iron ore prices are expected to remain steady due to anticipated December restocking by steel mills. Fundamentals indicate continued inventory reductions without major supply-demand imbalances, while macro attention focuses on December’s Economic Work Conference. With contract rollovers in progress, major market trends are unlikely to emerge. Stay vigilant and strategic to manage potential volatility effectively.

    Published On: November 29, 2024By
  • Yesterday’s market saw divergence, with iron ore strengthening, steel remaining weak, and coking coal declining further due to loose supply. Ahead of the mid-December Economic Work Conference, the market is expected to stay range-bound or trend slightly downward in the absence of policy incentives. Patience is key—wait for clear signals at critical levels and avoid rash decisions.

    Published On: November 28, 2024By
  • The market remains in a phase of narrowed volatility, with declining open interest in the 01 contract signaling limited profit potential and prompting a gradual shift toward the 05 contract, expected to complete by early December. A modest price uptick is anticipated in early to mid-December, driven by stable fundamentals, key meeting expectations, and increased winter storage activity for iron ore. Traders are advised to adopt a strategic approach, focus on the 05 contract, and wait for clearer market signals to optimize positioning.

    Published On: November 27, 2024By
  • The steel market remains stable despite regional price differences, with strong demand for hot-rolled coils driven by export competition. Rebar prices are holding steady across various regions, with inventories rising in steel mills, indicating that demand may decline in the next two weeks as winter storage trading logic takes effect. Iron ore prices are supported in the short term by a weaker U.S. Dollar Index and steel mills stocking up for the winter. Market fluctuations are expected to continue, with the recommended strategy being to observe or "sell on highs."

    Published On: November 26, 2024By
  • The spot market remained firm over the weekend, with a strong basis in finished steel suggesting limited short-term price declines. Rebar contracts saw a significant reduction in positions, indicating cautious capital activity. While the U.S. Dollar Index strengthened last week due to weak Eurozone PMI, further gains are unlikely, which could benefit commodities. The suggested strategy is to "sell on highs" and wait for better price levels amid expected market volatility.

    Published On: November 25, 2024By
  • This week’s market movement reflects "basis calibration" and continued oscillation since October. The market is in a preparation phase, with stable demand and minimal supply-demand imbalances. Domestic policies remain unchanged, while global markets are steady. The main strategy is to "sell on highs," with a low probability of sharp declines but a need for vigilance.

    Published On: November 22, 2024By
  • The market remains volatile, with limited trading opportunities at present. Patience is key—avoid frequent positions and act only at critical levels. Technical indicators suggest a shift to contract rollovers, with funds largely observing. A sustained upward trend depends on policy support, expected after the Central Economic Work Conference in December. For now, the rebar 2501 contract is projected to fluctuate between 3250-3350. Suitable inquiries can proceed, and our team is available for guidance.

    Published On: November 21, 2024By
  • The futures rebar 2501 contract has been fluctuating between 3230-3300, with similar trends for hot-rolled coil. Following China's Politburo meeting on the 19th, plans for increased monetary easing have reduced support for further market rises. The U.S. Dollar Index has stabilized at 107, easing downward pressure on steel prices. In the short term, steel prices are expected to remain within a disordered fluctuation range, stabilizing between 3230-3330. Buyers can wait if delivery is not urgent, as current prices are reasonable.

    Published On: November 18, 2024By