While steel prices have temporarily stabilized, macroeconomic downside risks remain high. The April 2nd tariff decision will be a key test for market sentiment—if the market holds steady, immediate risks may subside, but the long-term bearish trend remains intact. Traders should maintain a cautious stance, stay focused on short opportunities, and watch for further fundamental shifts before expecting a major selloff.

This week’s market direction hinges on the April 2nd tariff decision and the April 5th U.S. job data. While fundamentals are still relatively stable, the high uncertainty surrounding macro factors increases downside risks. Traders should maintain a cautious approach, prioritize short positions, and be prepared for potential market volatility.

The steel market faces an increasing risk of a sharp downturn as fundamental contradictions intensify, and external tariff risks mount. With the failure of production cut policies, the sector's supply side will likely face limited intervention this year. The market is expected to remain range-bound with a potential downturn after April, particularly post-Qingming. Traders should be cautious of potential policy shifts and external volatility influencing market conditions.

The market remains in a consolidation phase with three consecutive days of range-bound trading, as funds actively roll over positions from the May to October contract. With no major supply-demand imbalances, stable demand for medium plate and galvanized steel continues to support production, though a potential demand peak before or after the Qingming Festival raises downside risks. Key macro events include the April 2 U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs decision and China’s shift from output control to carbon emission control, with regulatory details yet to be clarified. Technically, the market is expected to stay within the 3180-3280 range, with a higher probability of downside movement post-Qingming. Trading strategies should focus on selling rallies within the range while monitoring policy signals and tariff-related volatility.

The steel market remains range-bound as major funds continue rolling positions, reducing open interest by another 13.5 million contracts. Fundamentals show steady demand for medium plates, cold-rolled, and galvanized steel, with no significant supply-demand imbalance. While steel mills have little urgency to cut prices, price hikes are also constrained. Policy uncertainty persists, with ongoing rumors of production cuts but no official confirmation, keeping the market hesitant to move decisively. Technically, MACD is flattening, signaling sideways movement, with key resistance at 3250 and support at 3150. A breakout will require confirmed production cuts or strong macroeconomic easing. The primary strategy remains selling into rallies near resistance while closely monitoring policy developments for potential market shifts.

The market continues its upward momentum following yesterday’s rally, with increasing trading volume supporting further gains. Spot prices are expected to rise moderately by 10-30 CNY, while futures are projected to trade within the 3180-3230 range. Key support levels stand at 3180 and 3150, with resistance at 3210 and 3230. The main strategy remains buying on dips, targeting the upper resistance zone, while short-term traders should focus on momentum continuation. However, caution is advised as profit-taking may emerge near resistance levels.

The steel market is expected to trade within a range of 3150-3280 this week, with no clear breakout. Internationally, Trump’s flexible tariff stance and the Federal Reserve’s $776 billion loss may support commodities. Domestically, speculation of an RRR cut is boosting sentiment. Fundamentals remain stable, with strong demand for cold-rolled and galvanized steel, while declining coke and iron ore prices lower production costs. The short-term outlook is mildly bullish, with key resistance at 3280 and support at 3150. Traders should adopt a range-bound strategy, buying near support and selling near resistance.

The market experienced a weak rebound within a broader downtrend, with a slight price increase driven by short-covering rather than strong buying interest. Despite higher trading volume, the reduction in open interest indicates a lack of new long positions, limiting upside potential. Fundamentals remain mixed, with strong export demand for certain steel products but weak domestic construction demand due to cash flow constraints. While no major external bearish factors are present, expectations of domestic monetary easing provide mild support. Given the current conditions, the primary strategy remains "sell the rally," as short-term volatility persists, but the overall trend remains bearish.

The steel market remains in a clear downtrend, with no signs of reversal despite a temporary rebound. Increased volume and open interest expansion indicate persistent selling pressure, while coking coal and coke continue to set new lows, weighing on the entire sector. Macroeconomic factors provided a brief boost, as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s slower balance sheet reduction and stronger rate cut expectations improved sentiment. However, today's key events, including China’s LPR rate announcement and the Steel Union inventory report, could influence short-term movements. Traders should view any bounce as a selling opportunity, with the primary strategy being to "sell the rally" and hedge sales at higher prices to lock in margins. Caution is advised, as the rebound may be short-lived.

Rebar’s decisive break below 3180 suggests a potential sustained downtrend, reinforced by increased volume and new short positions. Weakness is evident across the steel sector, with coking coal and coke leading the declines, while HRC remains relatively resilient. However, a sharp rise in SHFE warehouse receipts indicates potential short squeeze pressure in April. Key upcoming events, including the U.S. Fed rate decision, China’s LPR announcement, and the Steel Union inventory report, could shape market sentiment. In the short term, volatility is expected ahead of these events, while a confirmed bearish outlook post-announcements could justify stronger short positions. Caution is advised against short-term rebounds before further confirmation.

Last week, rebar futures saw a slight increase but with reduced trading volume and a decrease in open interest. After a price rise with reduced open interest, the night session on Friday saw a price drop with increased open interest, indicating a downward trend. Key resistance levels are 3270-3350 for rebar and 3450-3500 for hot-rolled coils, which may trigger selling pressure if approached. The market is expected to fluctuate within the 3200-3300 range, with a low probability of a breakout. A wait-and-see approach is recommended.

Steel futures experienced a temporary rebound driven by short-covering rather than fresh buying, highlighting weak conviction behind the rally. Rebar saw heavy liquidation, with 145,000 contracts closed during the day and an additional 11,500 overnight. Despite the price surge, the market remains in a broad consolidation range, facing strong resistance at 3300-3350 for rebar and 3450-3500 for hot-rolled coil (HRC), where hedging flows could trigger selling pressure. Key factors to watch include open interest trends—if positions rise with prices, the rally may extend; if they decline, upside potential remains limited. Spot market demand strength and financial conditions for steel traders will also play a role. Additionally, speculation about a potential production cut policy announcement on March 15 could introduce significant volatility. Given these conditions, traders are advised to sell near resistance levels in the short term and closely monitor policy signals before making medium-term commitments.

The steel futures market continues to exhibit range-bound movement, with a mild rebound underway but limited upside momentum. U.S. CPI data provided slight relief by easing inflation concerns, while no major international events are expected to disrupt the market this month. Domestically, expectations for monetary easing could offer short-term support, but supply-demand fundamentals remain stable, preventing a strong directional shift. Today’s Steel Union report will be crucial in reassessing price fundamentals and could introduce fresh volatility. Given the prevailing bearish trend, the recommended strategy is to sell into rallies, using the rebound as an opportunity to establish short positions for the next major downtrend.

The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with prices finding support around 3180, preventing further downside. Trading volume remains low, and the market is moving within a narrow range, reflecting a lack of clear direction. Global pressures have eased slightly, while domestic policies remain neutral, offering little momentum for a strong trend. The market is expected to trade between 3200-3300 in the short term, with 3350 acting as the upper limit for the current rebound. Despite a brief rebound, the overall bearish bias persists due to the market imbalance and selling pressure. Traders should focus on selling during rallies near higher levels, particularly around 3350, while keeping positions light and managing risks with stops at key support and resistance levels. The release of Steel Union data tomorrow could act as a catalyst for the next major move in the market.

The global market is under significant pressure, with the US stock market's decline triggering selling in the black metals sector. Rebar and glass prices have seen notable drops, with increasing open interest indicating market uncertainty. The lack of new production cut policies from the Chinese government has disappointed investors, reinforcing a cautious market outlook. Technically, the market continues its downward momentum, with consolidation leading to gradual declines. Resistance levels around 3300-3350 are holding strong, and support at 3230 could signal further losses if breached. Traders should focus on a short bias, selling near resistance and staying vigilant due to the heightened volatility and external market factors.

The steel market remains under pressure following China’s Two Sessions, where policy outcomes were largely in line with expectations but fell short of strong stimulus for the sector. The lower-than-expected special bond issuance (1.3T vs. 2T forecast) dampened sentiment, while repeated mentions of steel output cuts could weigh on raw material prices. Globally, weak US job data and Trump’s unpredictable policy stance have heightened risk aversion, while ongoing Russia-Ukraine ceasefire uncertainty adds to market instability. Fundamentally, steel inventories are declining, indicating stable demand, but falling raw material costs and widening profit margins may spur increased production, posing downside risks. Technically, last week’s bearish close (-2.28%) with rising short positions suggests continued weakness, with key support at 3230 and resistance at 3300-3350. Trading is expected to remain range-bound (3230-3330) early in the week, with a potential breakdown if support fails. A short bias remains valid, particularly on rejections near resistance, while macro-driven volatility warrants caution.

The steel market remains volatile amid ongoing speculation about crude steel production cuts, with the NDRC hinting at sector-specific restructuring measures. Early seasonal destocking suggests shifting demand-supply dynamics, though the sustainability of demand remains uncertain. Technically, the market sees intense long-short battles, leading to a rangebound movement without a clear breakout. Rebar is projected to trade between 3250–3300, while iron ore hovers around 765–785. Given policy uncertainty, a cautious approach is advised, focusing on inventory and demand trends for clearer directional signals.

The market remains in a wait-and-see mode following the latest Two Sessions meeting, which provided no major stimulus surprises. While fiscal and monetary policies lean towards moderate easing, the lack of aggressive measures has left sentiment neutral to slightly bearish. Attention now shifts to two key factors: potential steel production cuts hinted at by the NDRC and the strength of seasonal demand in March and April. Technical indicators suggest a tight trading range, with support at 3250 holding for now. A decisive market move is expected next week, driven by demand signals and possible production restrictions.

The market turned bearish following the U.S. and Canada’s unexpected 10% tariff hike, pushing total steel tariffs to 20% and triggering broad-based declines across commodities. Technical indicators show increased short interest with higher open interest, while lower volume suggests selling pressure remains controlled. The daily chart reveals buying support at 3250, but the rebound lacks momentum. U.S. stock markets broke key support levels, signaling further downside risks amid large-scale capital outflows. In the short term, weak consolidation is expected, with 3250 as a critical support level. The post-Two Sessions period will be decisive, potentially leading to a sharp breakdown. Traders should maintain a cautious bearish bias and closely monitor policy announcements for market direction.

The steel market remains in a critical phase as iron ore prices continue to decline while finished steel holds firm, hinting at possible production cut policies ahead. Unverified reports suggest potential restrictions, but confirmation is still pending. With the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opening today and the National People's Congress following tomorrow, policy announcements during the Two Sessions could significantly impact market trends. If no production cuts are introduced, the market is likely to fluctuate between 3270-3370, whereas confirmed cuts could push prices up to 3400-3500. Given this uncertainty, shorting raw materials remains a cautious yet strategic approach.

This week, the market will be influenced by the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the National People’s Congress (NPC), with potential volatility depending on any industry-specific production cuts. Raw material prices continue to decline, while finished steel prices remain steady, though this profit structure may not last. A sell-on-rallies strategy is recommended, with a cautious wait-and-see approach if the market stays range-bound. Any upward movement offers a chance to hedge, while a decline suggests using wider stop-losses and holding for a longer-term trend. The expected range for today is 3270-3350, with limited trading opportunities.

Yesterday, rebar and hot-rolled coil futures showed a slight recovery after previous losses, with a mixed candlestick pattern and a minor bullish bias, supported by higher trading volume and a small increase in open interest. In contrast, iron ore prices declined, accompanied by a drop in open interest and an increase in trading volume, signaling a divergence in market sentiment, especially as distant-month contracts fell more sharply than near-month ones. This suggests expectations of weakening iron ore demand, potentially due to improved steel mill profitability. Market sentiment is factoring in potential production restrictions, rumored to be around 20 million tons, though unconfirmed. Overall, the market is expected to fluctuate between 3300-3400 in the short term, with limited movement anticipated until further clarity comes from the upcoming Two Sessions or official announcements.

The market is showing signs of weakness, with a downward shift in prices across key commodities such as rebar, hot-rolled coil, and coke futures. Demand appears to be weaker than anticipated, with delays in production and the impact of tariffs beginning to show in the data. Technical indicators suggest limited upward movement, with resistance at 3370 and support at 3250. Shorting at higher levels remains the focus, as the market is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, awaiting further data, particularly from the Steel Federation, which may influence sentiment in the coming days.

The steel market remains balanced between bullish and bearish factors. With the Two Sessions approaching, expectations for policy support are rising, while stable raw material prices provide a solid foundation. However, concerns over foreign anti-dumping measures and cautious sentiment among traders limit upward momentum. Demand from construction sites is gradually increasing but not at a rapid pace. Given this mixed outlook, price movements are expected to stay within the 3300–3400 range. Strategically, shorting at higher levels remains favorable, with a focus on iron ore and finished steel, while keeping intraday positions light to mitigate risk.

The steel market is experiencing a significant price surge driven by strong demand, as revealed by the latest Steel Union data, showing an increase in apparent demand by 1.3 million tons. This surge is supported by tangible needs from construction projects and traders restocking supplies, not speculative activities. Raw material prices for iron ore and coking coal are also rising due to steel plants operating at full capacity. While the market is in the rebound phase, the upside potential is limited, and the risk of a sharp reversal in the futures market remains if demand falls short of expectations. In the spot market, holding long positions is still reasonable, but caution is advised in the futures market due to the uncertain risk/reward dynamics.

Yesterday, the market experienced limited movement within a 30-point range, with little room for significant trading opportunities. While both coking coal and iron ore showed strength, the rebar market was passively supported. The key trend observed was the "Iron Ore Long-Term Stronger than Near-Term" spread, driven by a convergence in the iron ore basis. This was primarily due to futures markets being heavily discounted relative to the spot market, as concerns over low production and weak demand capped upside potential. However, long-term contracts remain more optimistic, leading to a narrowing of the spread. The market is currently consolidating within the 3250-3350 range, and the strength of demand recovery will likely determine the scope of any potential rebound. Attention is on the Steel Union data release today, which may offer clearer signals for future decisions. In the meantime, a defensive approach is recommended, with light positions for short-term trades and a focus on selling during rallies.

The market is currently consolidating within the 3250-3350 range, with demand recovery being a crucial factor in determining the next market movement. While the recent speech by PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng has provided some positive sentiment, its impact has been limited. Ahead of the Two Sessions, a rebound is expected to be capped below 3400, but if post-session policies and demand fall short of expectations, the market could begin a smoother downward trend. A breakdown below the 3000 level seems increasingly likely as the consolidation phase has built significant downward momentum. As such, a cautious stance is recommended, with close attention to upcoming data for clearer market signals.

The market has returned to the 3250-3350 range, with key resistance levels at 3280, 3300, 3330, and 3350. Demand recovery this week will play a crucial role in determining the potential rebound, with Thursday's Steel Union data expected to provide more insights. Yesterday’s roundtable with private enterprises had minimal impact on the black metal sector, and with the Two Sessions yet to start, the likelihood of a significant downturn in the black metals market this February remains low. After the Two Sessions in March, the market dynamics will become clearer, allowing for better strategic adjustments. Until then, a defensive approach with light-position trades and short positions at higher levels is recommended.

With the Lantern Festival now behind us, demand in the steel market is expected to recover this week, although last week's price decline limits the potential for a significant drop. The outlook suggests a short-term dip followed by a slight rebound, with minimal risk of a sharp collapse in February. As the Two Sessions have not yet begun, the strength of the demand recovery remains uncertain, and more clarity on market trends is anticipated after the sessions in March. Until then, a cautious, light-position strategy is advisable, focusing on shorting at higher levels while awaiting more definitive signals for a more aggressive approach post-Two Sessions.

Steel billet prices have softened this week, with a total drop of 70 yuan, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. The prices for Mian’an and Songting billets stand at 3020 and 3030 yuan, respectively, with traders seeing an inclusive tax rate of 3080 yuan. The market remains volatile, as production ramps up post-holiday, and demand trends are expected to become clearer. The prices of related materials such as rebar, hot-rolled coils, and coke have also seen minor declines. As factories resume operations, demand concerns persist, and short-term market fluctuations are anticipated as supply and demand adjust.

Steel prices remain weak despite bullish sentiment, while iron ore continues to outperform, creating a notable market divergence. A cyclone in Australia has disrupted iron ore exports, leading to declining port inventories, but steel demand remains uncertain as post-holiday construction activity is yet to be confirmed. With limited downside risks due to blast furnace losses, steel prices find some support from strong iron ore performance. The near-term range is expected to be 3270-3350, with intraday trading opportunities favored. A short bias near 3350 and a long bias near 3270 are recommended, with conditional orders set around key levels.

U.S. tariffs have dampened bullish sentiment, limiting upside potential and prompting a downward revision of the prior target from 3450 to 3400. Production margins are tightening, with Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) costs at 3190 RMB/ton and Blast Furnace (BF) mills facing compressed margins, some even operating at a loss. This is likely to drive increased EAF production while BF mills may cut output. In the short term, volatility is expected as BF mills limit production, with prices ranging between 3270-3350 before trending lower. Given market headwinds, the strategy shifts to "Sell the Rally," favoring short positions on strength while avoiding dip-buying. Key resistance levels for selling opportunities are near 3350-3400.

Trump’s recent order imposing a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum has triggered immediate bearish sentiment across the steel sector. In the short term, heightened uncertainty may lead to volatility, making it crucial for traders to reassess their positions. Long-term implications include shifts in export channels, manufacturing supply chains, and overall industry profitability. Given these factors, it’s advisable to exit long positions, avoid impulsive trades, and wait for market stabilization before making new moves. Prioritizing risk management and patience will be key as the market adjusts to this significant policy shift.

Last week, rebar closed with a -0.89% loss, forming a bearish candle with notable shadows, while open interest and trading volume increased. Iron ore remained resilient, and steel billet prices saw slight gains. In the short term, consolidation continues, with key resistance levels at ¥3,400 for rebar, ¥3,510 for hot-rolled coil, and ¥835 for iron ore. No major bullish catalysts are in sight, but the upcoming Two Sessions Meeting in March keeps market sentiment cautiously optimistic. Traders are advised to buy on dips within ¥3,320–¥3,390, hold positions patiently, and avoid premature shorting unless hedging. The upside target remains ¥3,450, with an extreme ceiling at ¥3,550.

Steel futures remain range-bound between ¥3,320–¥3,390, offering limited short-term trading opportunities, while iron ore strength provides some market support. No major structural shifts are expected, making a buy-on-dips approach reasonable, though aggressive trading should be avoided. Key resistance levels are set at ¥3,450, with an extreme upside of ¥3,550, though exceeding this level is unlikely. The best shorting opportunity will arise once upside momentum weakens, so premature shorting should be avoided. In the current market, patience is key—waiting for the rally to lose steam will provide the real opportunity.

Yesterday’s market remained range-bound between ¥3,320–¥3,390, showing no clear directional trend and indicating a temporary equilibrium. Steel Union data reveals rising inventories, but apparent consumption is rebounding rapidly, with demand increasing by 500,000 tons compared to last year, providing fundamental support. Policy expectations are also fueling optimism, as the State Council’s February 5th meeting emphasized stronger counter-cyclical adjustments, and investors anticipate potential stimulus ahead of the March "Two Sessions" meeting. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate within ¥3,320–¥3,390, with a potential breakout target above ¥3,400, while the mid-term range extends to ¥3,350–¥3,450. Given the current fundamentals and policy outlook, a cautiously bullish approach is recommended—buying on dips is favorable, while short positions should be avoided. The market remains in consolidation, but upside momentum is gradually building with improving demand and policy expectations.

The market opened strong yesterday but faced a sharp sell-off with rising open interest, indicating a capital-driven shakeout rather than a sustained downtrend. Rebar futures remain in a broad rebound channel between ¥3,200–¥3,450/t, with upside momentum still intact. Given the current price of ¥3,330/t, traders should stay cautious, waiting for clearer signals before entering new positions. Light long positions around ¥3,310/t with strict stop-losses are an option, while shorting remains risky due to fundamental support. For physical inventory holders, a layered short hedging strategy and put options can help manage risks. Overall, patience and disciplined risk management are essential in navigating market uncertainties.

As the first trading session after the Chinese Spring Festival approaches, global markets have shown limited volatility, with black series futures expected to adjust initially before stabilizing. Over the holiday, Trump announced a 10% tariff hike on Chinese goods, creating short-term market pressure, though the long-term impact remains uncertain as China may introduce stimulus measures. Steel demand is expected to decline in 2025, with inventory drawdowns and export demand in focus. Currently, rebar is at 3,382, hot-rolled coil at 3,485, and iron ore at 810. A spread trading strategy is advisable, while short-term speculative long positions carry high risks. A clearer market direction may emerge after China’s Two Sessions, warranting a cautious approach for now.

The proposed 25% tariff on Chinese goods, set to take effect on February 1st, had little impact on black commodity futures, with rebar futures even edging higher. This indicates the market has largely priced in the bearish news, boosting confidence in maintaining long positions. The current rebound is expected to last until mid-to-late February, potentially extending to mid-March with the conclusion of the Two Sessions, targeting a price range of 3450–3500 yuan. While market sentiment suggests a "zigzag" pattern with frequent fluctuations, gradual gains may sustain the rally. Traders are advised to hold light positions, monitor pre-holiday trends, and approach with patience and disciplined management.

The current market pullback is seen as a pause to gather momentum rather than the end of the rebound, prompting a cautious strategy focused on light long positions while avoiding shorts. Yesterday's announcement of a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada caused industrial declines, heightening concerns about potential extensions to China. Despite these tensions, steel mill profitability remains reasonable, with electric arc and blast furnaces sustaining production stability. While the rebound's upside potential appears limited, observing key indicators like production costs and global policies is critical for strategic adjustments. Patience and careful positioning are advised.

Yesterday's market rebound capped at 3391 before pulling back to a low of 3340, with prices consolidating between 3350 and 3385. Reduced open interest and trading volume signal a consolidation phase, likely persisting within the 3340-3390 range until the Chinese New Year unless stimulated by interest rate or reserve requirement adjustments. While a break above 3400 is possible with such catalysts, prices are otherwise expected to stabilize near 3350, with a low likelihood of dipping below 3300. The rebound trend remains intact, favoring light short-term long positions, while conservative traders are advised to stay on the sidelines. Calendar spread arbitrage strategies, such as "short near-term, long far-term," present opportunities, while traders with physical inventories should hedge in stages above 3420. Shorting is not recommended in the current conditions.

Last week, rebar surged by around 200 points, forming a strong bullish weekly candle, with market sentiment shifting as previously bearish traders turned bullish—a classic "musical chairs" market psychology trap. Commodity trends showed strong rebounds in iron ore and coking coal, with futures moving from discount to premium, supported by uniformly bullish technical and positional indicators, suggesting further upside with limited corrections before the New Year. On the policy front, domestic economic targets of 5% GDP growth or higher for 2025, combined with anticipated RRR and interest rate cuts, point to continued liquidity support, while positive U.S.-China communication reinforces expectations for robust global economic stimulus. Strategically, the market seems orchestrated by major players to shift sentiment, creating FOMO and setting the stage for potential post-holiday traps. Traders should hold long positions during the current rally, gradually build spread trades, and manage risks to prepare for possible shocks, remaining vigilant despite short-term bullish momentum.

Yesterday, rebar continued its upward movement, driven by iron ore, forming a bullish engulfing candlestick on the weekly chart, suggesting a potential short-term upward trend. However, technical indicators show that iron ore experienced increased open interest with shrinking volume, while rebar saw both open interest and volume decline. This indicates a lack of sufficient buying power, limiting the short-term upward potential and suggesting the market may enter consolidation or correction. Given the rapid rally and insufficient momentum, the market is uncertain, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended. While the larger cycle remains downward, there are short-term rebounding opportunities. Ahead of the Chinese New Year, short positions are not ideal. The strategy involves favoring light short-term long positions, maintaining a neutral stance for those without positions, and keeping a stop loss at 3240 for existing long positions while avoiding new short positions. The strategy will be adjusted based on iron ore market volumes, with the best approach being patience and caution.

Yesterday’s price movement showed a weakening of the momentum from the "energy rally driving black commodities higher." While oil prices continued to rise, with fuel oil even hitting the daily limit, the black commodity sector failed to sustain the upward movement, resulting in a narrow range-bound oscillation in rebar prices. This suggests that news-driven factors are losing influence, and the market is likely to shift back to fundamental-driven fluctuations. Despite low inventories and production levels, market sentiment remains stable, though weak purchasing interest could lead to a revisit of recent lows. Given the current conditions, the risk/reward for short positions is unfavorable, and it’s not yet the right time to go long. The market is expected to remain range-bound with limited volatility this week, and we recommend waiting for a clearer trend before taking action.

Friday night’s trading was influenced by two major factors: the U.S. non-farm payroll data and joint U.S.-UK sanctions on Russia, which led to significant increases in the energy and chemical sectors, with a sharp rise in freight rates driving iron ore prices and boosting the entire black commodity sector. With year-end approaching and low steel inventories, the prolonged downtrend seems to be nearing its end, reducing the risk/reward of short positions, making it an opportune time to "take profit on shorts." Moving forward, caution is advised in entering long positions, with a preference for waiting until after the New Year to consider shorting on rallies. A short-term downtrend is expected in the next couple of days before the market potentially sets a solid foundation for upward movement. A break above 3290 would signal the end of the downtrend and the start of a rebound phase. While the broader trend remains downward, rebound movements within this phase could provide opportunities, with a potential 200-point rebound to capitalize on. The strategy is to remain cautious and prepare for long positions based on short-term market developments.

Last night's trading was influenced by stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, which led to higher black commodity futures with increased volume and reduced positions. Key observations include a sharp rise in the U.S. Dollar Index, declines in U.S. equities, renewed depreciation pressure on the Chinese Yuan, and upward momentum in commodities like crude oil, gold, silver, base metals, and iron ore. U.S. Treasury yields fell, reflecting heightened market risk aversion. This rally is expected to last about two days before the market returns to its fundamental trajectory. While a short-term downturn could provide a foundation for future upward movements, initiating a steady uptrend now may be premature. A breakout above 3290 would signal the end of the downtrend. For now, it’s advisable to stay cautious, avoid long positions, and sideline short positions until clearer signals emerge. Detailed strategies will be provided in next Monday’s briefing.

The market is currently experiencing a period of consolidation around the 3200 support level, suggesting a brief pause before potential downward momentum resumes. This temporary support may lead to a phase-bottom formation, with clearer market signals expected around January 20, either before or after the Lunar New Year. In terms of strategy, long-term positioning might present opportunities to enter long positions as the market approaches its bottom, aiming to capitalize on a subsequent rebound. For the time being, the focus should remain on a sell-on-rise strategy, maintaining short positions throughout the consolidation phase while staying vigilant to adjust according to market changes.

The market continued its downward trend yesterday, breaking the 3230 support level and nearing 3200. Among black metals, coke performed the weakest, while rebar and hot-rolled coils followed with moderate weakness. Iron ore showed relative strength, with the basis between futures and spot prices improving slightly. Looking ahead, the market is expected to continue its downward correction, with support near 3100. The short-term outlook suggests range-bound movement between 3200 and 3250. The strategy is to avoid rushing to exit during market volatility, remaining patient and adjusting positions dynamically while maintaining a longer-term perspective.

The market recently found support around the 3230 level, which also served as a key point on November 15 when prices rebounded sharply. However, differing external conditions now limit the potential for a similar rebound. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate between 3230 and 3280, with iron ore fluctuating between 745 and 770. As winter storage dynamics intensify and iron ore weakens, the likelihood of further downside increases. Overall, the market is expected to remain within a narrow range, with limited upside potential due to weaker external factors. A cautious approach is recommended, awaiting further market clarity and potential declines.