Steel futures are currently caught between bullish optimism and bearish caution, as market attention shifts from Tangshan’s environmental curbs to speculation around a potential “Supply-Side Reform 2.0.” Bulls are banking on pro-growth signals from upcoming political events and seasonal demand recovery, while bears highlight persistently weak demand across key sectors and still-elevated steel production. We remain cautious, viewing the recent rally as a technical rebound rather than a sustainable trend. In such volatile conditions, prudent risk management and clear trading conviction are more critical than ever.

Steel prices rose yesterday amid speculation over possible production cuts in Tangshan, but conflicting reports from major industry sources highlight ongoing uncertainty. While SteelHome reported that over half of integrated mills had received restriction notices, Mysteel found no signs of significant curbs. Meanwhile, policy signals from China’s top economic body — emphasizing an end to low-price competition and outdated capacity — have fueled market optimism about long-term reforms. Despite this, the current rally appears policy-driven rather than based on improved fundamentals. The broader trend remains bearish, and traders are advised to short on strength and take profits quickly on any longs.

The steel market has entered a period of consolidation as the recent rally—largely fueled by coking coal strength—loses momentum. With coal prices pulling back and downstream demand remaining weak, the market is caught in a tug-of-war between firm upstream supply and soft consumption. As a result, prices are expected to stay range-bound in the short term, offering limited trading opportunities.

Coking coal led the ferrous complex higher last week, breaking key resistance levels with a strong 6.6% gain and setting the tone for continued short-term strength. Iron ore followed with moderate gains, while rebar and hot-rolled coil lagged behind. The curve shows bullish expectations, with long-dated contracts outperforming despite weakening basis values. Improved sentiment, rising coal prices, and easing U.S. tariff concerns have supported the rally. With key resistance around 3050–3100 in focus, the market is likely to remain firm, especially for raw materials, as macro data and U.S. policy signals shape this week’s direction.

Last night’s surge in the ferrous market was fueled by strong raw material momentum, as hot metal production remained at a historically high 2.4229 million tons, reinforcing confidence in coal and iron ore demand. Coking coal led the rally with a 3.1% jump, followed by iron ore and coke, while finished products like rebar and hot-rolled coil posted more modest gains. Technical indicators highlight robust capital inflow into raw materials, with rising volume and open interest in coal and ore, in contrast to weaker downstream participation. This points to a rally driven more by upstream strength than by end-user demand, suggesting that without follow-through from the finished steel sector, sustainability may be limited. Caution is warranted, and a left-side accumulation strategy may be prudent ahead of any potential rotation or reversal.

Recent safety inspections in Shanxi coal mines and restrictions on Mongolian coal imports have supported coking coal and steel prices, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain manageable with low risk of escalation. Market fundamentals show weak demand and limited upside for coking coal prices, suggesting a short-term range-bound and volatile steel futures market. Traders are advised to remain cautious and patient, considering short positions near resistance levels or waiting for clear breakout signals in the coming weeks.

The recent de-escalation of the Iran–Israel conflict has shifted the market focus back to fundamentals. With geopolitical risk receding and oil losing its upward momentum, steel prices are no longer supported by external shocks. Weak demand and declining new orders suggest the temporary rebound has ended. As the market digests the ceasefire, steel futures are likely to enter a phase of consolidation with a potential downside breakout. A cautious short-selling strategy is advised.

In summary, a volatile 12-hour period in the Middle East—marked by missile strikes, sharp oil price swings, and a surprising ceasefire agreement—has temporarily calmed global markets. With tensions easing and energy costs retreating, the steel market is likely to find short-term stability, supported by improved sentiment and reduced geopolitical risk.

The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have escalated tensions in the Middle East, triggering a geopolitical risk premium across global markets. While a full-scale conflict remains uncertain, oil prices are expected to surge, supporting energy and coking coal prices in the short term. This, in turn, offers temporary support to steel prices despite weak domestic fundamentals such as sluggish demand and limited policy stimulus. Volatility and narrowing price ranges characterize the current steel market. Traders are advised to stay cautious—sell on strength, remain neutral during consolidation, and wait for clear signs before shorting.

In summary, while the medium-to-long-term outlook for steel remains bearish, near-term dynamics suggest a potential rebound. Geopolitical tensions are pushing crude oil—and by extension, raw material costs—higher, while current supply-demand fundamentals remain stable. The recent drop in warehouse receipts further supports a short-term bullish case. Traders are advised to reduce short exposure temporarily and look for higher entry points to re-establish bearish positions.

The steel market faces heightened short-term volatility driven primarily by escalating Middle East tensions. While Iran's missile launch created global headlines, its actual impact remains limited for now, though potential U.S. retaliation poses serious market risks—especially for energy and steel-related commodities. Meanwhile, domestic policy signals and the Fed's dovish stance provide long-term support but little immediate influence. Traders are advised to reduce short positions and stay alert to geopolitical developments, as sudden market swings remain highly possible.

In summary, while energy and commodity markets rallied on heightened geopolitical tensions, the steel sector showed limited bullish follow-through. Coking coal remains relatively strong under crude oil’s influence, but iron ore weakness continues to cap the upside potential for finished steel products. With a range-bound market and diverging raw material trends, the strategy remains to sell into strength rather than chase breakouts.

In summary, easing geopolitical tensions—particularly Iran's signal to engage in nuclear talks—have shifted market focus back to fundamentals, leading to declines in commodities and gains in equities. The steel market remains range-bound, supported by a firm spot-futures basis but facing softening demand. With limited directional momentum, a short-term consolidation phase is expected, and a tactical range-trading strategy is advised.

This week, the steel futures market is expected to stay within a choppy to mildly bullish range, driven primarily by rising crude oil prices amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On the fundamentals side, while production remains high and inventories are still being drawn down, demand is weakening—especially in hot-rolled coil and medium plate—due to a cooling manufacturing sector and ongoing real estate weakness. Seasonal demand softness will further cap any upside. Macro policy remains steady with no immediate stimulus in sight, as markets await potential signals from the late-July Politburo meeting. Technically, the RB2510 contract showed a small-bodied red candle last week, reinforcing a range-bound outlook, with falling open interest and rising volume. Basis remains elevated, particularly in far-month contracts, supporting short-term rebounds. Overall, a range-trading strategy within 2950–3150 is recommended, with a preference for selling into strength given the medium-term bearish view.

The steel market is showing signs of weakness as earlier optimism from U.S.–China trade talks fades and fundamentals take center stage. Despite stable raw material support and limited pressure on steel mill pricing, sluggish end-user demand and high supply levels are driving prices lower. Market sentiment remains cautious, with falling prices, flat trading volumes, and the addition of new U.S. tariffs on steel-related products contributing to a bearish outlook in the short term.

The current market is exhibiting clear range-bound consolidation across all segments. Rebar, for example, has been trading between 2950–3010 for an entire week, with declining volume and open interest indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Raw material prices remain flat, while finished steel products like rebar and HRC are also stuck in narrow ranges. The initial macro boost from U.S.–China trade talks is fading as optimism has been largely priced in. Although reports suggest a framework agreement has been reached, the lack of an official statement from China implies the focus is shifting from tariffs to sector-specific regulatory easing. Ongoing negotiations may extend to issues such as rare earth exports, chip restrictions, aircraft sales, and student visas. Strategically, the current rally appears weak, with limited upside potential; a downward move is likely once the consolidation ends, despite the possibility of a brief upward spike. The core strategy remains: sell into rallies and avoid building long positions.

Steel futures rebounded strongly on June 11, 2025, driven by renewed optimism over China–U.S. trade talks. Raw materials led the rally, with finished steel following, particularly in near-month HRC contracts outperforming rebar. While sentiment echoes the May 12 surge, current fundamentals—especially higher coking coal and coke prices—suggest this rally may peak lower, with targets at 3060 for rebar, 3190 for HRC, and 735 for iron ore. Traders are advised to stay cautious near these levels and consider reducing long positions if momentum weakens without solid fundamental support.

In summary, the steel futures market is showing signs of a fading rebound, with coking coal resuming its leadership in driving bearish sentiment. While demand in key sectors is still holding up, the lack of production cuts and steady hot metal output suggest limited support. With two key reversal windows approaching, the risk of renewed downside is rising. Traders are advised to maintain a sell-on-rally stance, focusing on short setups near the 3000–3050 resistance zone.

In summary, the black steel market is in a temporary rebound but remains range-bound with limited upside. Key upcoming events—such as the Steel Union data release and a timing window next week—could trigger renewed downside. Stabilizing coking coal and strong basis support offer short-term cushioning, but rising global uncertainties and fragile fundamentals suggest the broader downtrend may soon resume. Traders should remain flexible, favoring short-term range strategies while watching for renewed bearish signals.

In short, while bullish headlines like the ¥1 trillion liquidity injection and high-level diplomacy sparked a sharp rally, the move was largely driven by short-covering rather than genuine buying. With the broader downtrend still intact and resistance at 3050 holding firm, this rebound appears emotional, not structural. Caution is warranted—sell-on-strength remains the preferred strategy unless stronger fundamentals emerge.

In summary, while coking coal saw a sharp rebound driven by short-covering rather than real demand, the move lacks long-term conviction. Steel prices may benefit temporarily, but broader direction will depend on underlying fundamentals. With resistance looming and technical signals still bearish mid-term, a cautious, sell-on-rally strategy remains prudent.

Overall, the market is showing signs of stabilization with short-term rebound momentum building, especially in near-month contracts, while longer-term outlooks remain cautious. Although the broader downtrend persists, a technical bounce seems likely, suggesting traders should cautiously reduce shorts and monitor rebound strength before considering re-entry at higher levels.

In summary, while earlier signs pointed to a potential rebound in steel prices, Trump’s surprise tariff hike has decisively tilted the market bearish. Last week’s technicals confirmed this shift, with a sharp price drop, rising open interest, and heavy volume all signaling sustained downward pressure. Without supportive policy measures, the steel market now faces intensified headwinds both at home and abroad.

The ferrous market continues to face pressure from weakening coking coal prices, which are dragging down finished steel products. Nevertheless, strong basis data and stable billet prices suggest short-term downside is limited and a rebound may be imminent. Iron ore’s relative strength also supports the market. Traders should be cautious chasing shorts under current conditions.

While the market attempts to consolidate, strong bearish positioning and weak rebound signals reinforce the ongoing downtrend. With limited production discipline and inventory pressure mounting, short-side strategies remain preferable unless a fundamental shift emerges.

The steel market remains under pressure, led by the continuing weakness in coking coal. Supply is steady while demand shows seasonal softening and signs of inventory accumulation. Technically and fundamentally, the downtrend remains intact, and strategic selling into strength continues to be the most prudent approach.

Although the basis has shown some strength, weakness in key raw materials like coking coal continues to weigh on the steel complex. With macro risks lingering and no technical signs of a trend shift, adopting a defensive, risk-managed approach remains the most prudent course of action for traders in the short to medium term.

The steel market is likely to maintain a steady yet slightly bullish tone today, supported by stabilizing iron ore and coke markets. Spot prices should edge higher modestly, while futures remain range-bound with key technical levels to watch around 3060 and 3080. Traders should monitor for a potential breakout to confirm further strength.

With no fresh policy stimulus and macro factors providing limited influence, the steel market is currently in a short-term consolidation phase. Basis strength and lack of downside follow-through suggest it’s not the right time to push aggressively lower. The prudent strategy is to reduce shorts and remain patient until a clearer setup emerges.

Rebar futures continue to show clear bearish momentum, with rising open interest and lower volumes confirming short-side dominance. While HRC appears relatively stable, rebar remains the preferred short instrument among bears. With key policy events ahead, the market awaits potential shifts, but for now, weakness prevails across the board.

Steel billet prices remain range-bound as market participants weigh low inventory levels against demand uncertainty. The notable drop in Tangshan stockpiles suggests some underlying strength, but weak performance in futures and the lack of a strong demand catalyst keep the broader trend cautious. For now, the market is in a balancing phase, awaiting clearer directional cues from consumption patterns and macro signals.

On Thursday, the market was quiet with low volatility and much lower trading volume as traders stayed cautious after a recent rebound. Finished steel saw less activity, showing weak interest from both buyers and sellers, which suggests the market may be waiting for a clear direction. Raw materials like coking coal continued to weaken, while iron ore stayed strong but showed signs of slowing. Supply and demand look balanced for now, but demand remains uncertain. Important data coming next Thursday could affect the market. China’s financial support is mild and real estate is weak, while U.S. stocks are steady and oil prices dropped slightly. For now, it’s best to trade lightly with strict risk control and wait for a clear market move before taking bigger positions.

Global markets surged as geopolitical tensions eased—U.S.–China tariff relief, an India–Pakistan ceasefire, renewed Russia–Ukraine talks, and a new U.S.–Saudi arms deal—all boosted risk appetite. U.S. equities climbed, A-shares broke 3400, and commodities rallied broadly. However, this remains a macro-driven rebound, not a demand-led trend reversal. Market behavior shows typical shakeout patterns with capital rotation and short-covering in products like rebar, HRC, and coking coal, while iron ore stands out with rising prices supported by growing volume and open interest, signaling stronger bullish conviction. Despite the optimism, the rally lacks sustainable footing—our strategy remains cautious with a sell-on-rally bias, watching for exhaustion at key resistance levels.

Global tailwinds supported a moderate rebound in ferrous futures overnight, though the rally was driven mainly by short-covering rather than strong bullish sentiment. Markets remain range-bound with no clear breakout. Positive macro developments—including a softer-than-expected U.S. CPI, easing trade tensions, and China's confirmed tariff cuts on U.S. imports—boosted global risk appetite. Despite improved sentiment, underlying demand remains weak, especially in China. Iron ore is attempting to lead the rally, but sustainability is uncertain. Key resistance levels are holding across rebar, HRC, and iron ore. Cautious trading is advised with light short positions near resistance and tight stop-losses.

Steel prices rebounded on May 13 following a surprise reduction in additional tariffs to just 10%, halting the previous downtrend and shifting the market into a sideways, range-bound mode. Monday's price action, marked by heavy short covering and rising volume, suggests the rally may lack strong bullish conviction, with resistance seen near 3170–3200 for rebar, 3300–3330 for hot-rolled coil, and 731–750 for iron ore. In this technical setup, selling near resistance remains the favored short-term strategy.

On May 10, 2025, the steel market remained in a tug-of-war, with rising open interest but stagnant prices, indicating indecision between bulls and bears. While recent optimism around U.S.-China tariff talks and strong cost-based support near the 3000 level may offer short-term relief, the broader downtrend remains intact due to weak demand and oversupply concerns. Rebar is expected to range between 3020–3120, and the recommended strategy is to sell on strength and avoid long positions. Traders should watch for significant position unwinding as a signal of a possible short-term bottom.

The steel market is facing a critical moment, with a significant rise in open interest for rebar, indicating strong bearish pressure despite only a small drop in prices. The market is at a crossroads, with today's movements crucial in determining whether it will break to new lows or find support for a potential rebound. Bullish factors include stronger spot prices and solid orders from steel mills, while bearish factors like weakness in coking coal and raw materials contribute to downward pressure. The market is currently leaning towards new lows, with the battle between bulls and bears intensifying. The next few days will be pivotal in shaping the market's direction.

Steel markets have returned to fundamental-driven trading after a policy meeting offered no surprises. While a strong basis suggests healthy spot demand, weakening coking coal and coke prices are pressuring sentiment. With steel demand showing signs of retreat and momentum slowing, the overall tone leans slightly bearish. Today’s China Steel Union demand data will be key to short-term direction.

Steel futures are poised for a cautious rebound on May 7, 2025, driven by optimism surrounding potential monetary easing and improved U.S.-China trade sentiment. A key policy press conference has raised expectations for supportive measures like RRR or rate cuts, while resumed trade talks have eased tariff concerns. Despite these positive macro signals, the upside is expected to be limited, with resistance levels at 3230 for rebar, 3350 for hot rolled coil, and 740 for iron ore. Traders are advised to reduce or close short positions on rebounds and look to re-enter near resistance, while avoiding new long positions due to the likely short-lived nature of the rally.

The post-holiday market outlook suggests limited movement across global commodities, with prices showing weak rebound potential and remaining range-bound. Stock markets in the US and Europe saw modest gains, while base metals and crude oil experienced slight recoveries after initial declines. Iron ore swaps in Singapore also followed a similar pattern. With market sentiment subdued and no fresh momentum, the expectation is for continued sideways movement within a narrow trading range of 3070 to 3150 points. Traders are advised to remain cautious and avoid heavy positioning until clearer trends emerge.

Steel futures remained under weak pressure on April 29, with the market showing light volume, declining open interest, and a "near-strong, far-weak" curve structure, indicating pessimism about future expectations. Reduced open interest and lower volume signaled a lack of conviction from both bulls and bears, while the near-month contract outperformed distant ones, suggesting short-term hedging with poor forward outlook. Coking coal was the weakest performer, with a short-squeeze pressure on long positions, and the drop in international crude oil further weighed on the broader commodity space, dragging sentiment in the ferrous market. With today being the last trading day before the Labor Day holiday, cautious positioning and lower risk appetite prevailed. The market remains range-bound, with little directional commitment expected ahead of the break, and traders are advised to maintain light exposure and control risk, awaiting clearer signals after the holiday.

Steel futures experienced a modest rebound last week, supported by technical consolidation and increased trading activity, but the broader downtrend remains firmly intact. Despite short-term upside momentum, strong resistance near 3170–3210 is expected to cap gains, with the market still vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. Industry fundamentals show limited impact from production cuts, while slower inventory destocking adds to downside risks. Macroeconomic signals suggest a wait-and-see policy stance, and international tariff news has lost much of its influence. Overall, traders should view the current rally as a temporary rebound and stick to a cautious, "sell the rally" strategy, waiting patiently for stronger short setups.

Steel futures continued to trade within a tight range on April 24, showing little directional conviction as the market awaits clearer macroeconomic signals—particularly from the upcoming Politburo meeting. Key developments include China denying any active tariff negotiations with the U.S., casting doubt on trade progress, while China Steel Union data suggests apparent steel demand may have peaked. Meanwhile, U.S. market sentiment has improved slightly with rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in June, and steelmakers have ramped up hot metal output due to strong billet exports. However, poor visibility on May orders raises concerns about sustained demand. For now, the market remains range-bound between 3070 and 3150, with light short positions favored ahead of policy clarity. Traders are advised to stay cautious and wait for stronger directional cues after the Politburo meeting.

Steel futures rebounded sharply on April 23 due to unexpected optimism around U.S. tariff policy, but the rally was largely driven by short covering rather than strong bullish conviction. Despite the technical bounce, weak macro fundamentals and declining open interest suggest the uptrend lacks solid backing. With the Politburo meeting approaching, traders are advised to stay cautious, maintain light positions, and avoid chasing rallies until clearer policy signals emerge.

Steel futures weakened again on April 22, nearing recent lows as coking coal and coke led declines, dragging down rebar and hot-rolled coil, while iron ore showed relative resilience. The market remains choppy with shakeout-style price action, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the upcoming April Politburo meeting. Sentiment is cautious, with limited conviction on direction due to unclear policy signals, particularly around real estate and stimulus expectations. Given the erratic swings and lack of clear trends, traders are advised to stay patient, avoid chasing breakouts, and stick to short-term strategies—specifically fading rallies into resistance. Until policy direction becomes clearer, discipline and selective trading remain essential.

Steel futures extended their decline last week, but signs of a potential rebound are emerging as basis levels strengthen and market sentiment improves slightly on expectations of domestic policy support and a temporary easing in US-China trade tensions. The October 2025 rebar contract fell by 1.76%, and although the bearish trend remains intact, technical support around the 3050–3070 zone is holding for now. Market participants are closely watching this week’s macro signals, including the anticipated Politburo meeting and LPR decision, for clues on possible economic easing. While fundamentals remain weak, the spot market shows resilience, and any short-term bounce should be viewed with caution, as rallies into resistance may still offer opportunities to sell unless meaningful improvement occurs.

Steel futures remained weak on April 16 amid deteriorating macro sentiment, yet downside momentum appears limited as prices continue to find short-term support. Escalating U.S. tariff rhetoric—particularly Trump’s proposed but symbolic 245% hike—sparked renewed trade war concerns and weighed on risk sentiment. Meanwhile, China’s latest economic data disappointed, with continued contraction in real estate and underwhelming infrastructure growth offering little macro support. In the ferrous space, distortions in the coking coal market, such as delivery disruptions tied to warehouse receipts, led to sharp price declines and signs of a short squeeze. Despite increased open interest and bearish positioning, steel prices held relatively stable near electric arc furnace (EAF) cost levels, supported by rising spot premiums. Market chatter around potential real estate stimulus adds speculative interest, though credibility remains low. Overall, sentiment is fragile but not decisively bearish, and traders are advised to remain cautious until clearer directional signals emerge.

The steel market remains subdued, caught in a narrow trading range with limited momentum. With tariff concerns easing and no clear imbalance in supply and demand, the lack of major policy stimulus keeps the market in a “dead zone.” Traders are now looking to the upcoming Politburo meeting for any signs of a shift, though expectations for bold action remain low. In this environment, staying cautious and avoiding aggressive positions is key, as meaningful opportunities may only emerge once stronger signals appear from the macro front.

Steel markets on April 15, 2025, are caught in a holding pattern as tariff tensions ease and China boosts diplomatic activity in Southeast Asia, yet no domestic stimulus measures have been introduced. With both May and October futures contracts undergoing active rollover, traders are repositioning cautiously in a range-bound environment lacking strong directional cues. Key technical levels suggest remaining sidelined unless a clear breakout occurs, with short setups considered above 3200 or below 3090. Weekly trading ranges for rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore remain narrow, and with no major catalysts in sight, a reactive and patient trading approach is recommended.