December 13th Futures Morning Report:Market Analysis:

• Policy Expectations: All policy expectations have been realized, with a moderate and neutral assessment. From now until the New Year, aside from potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, there are no significant policy expectations.

• Arbitrage Basis: The overall performance is normal. The rebar-coil spread has narrowed to 130, indicating that rebar is relatively stronger, while hot-rolled coil is relatively weaker.

• Overseas News: The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week unexpectedly rose to 242,000, higher than expected and the previous figure, marking the highest level in two months. This strengthens the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.Comprehensive Outlook: The short-term market peak has appeared, with the respective peaks for different varieties being: rebar at 3480, hot-rolled coil at 3650, and iron ore at 830.

• Rebar Forecast: It is expected that rebar will fluctuate between 3330 and 3430 for a few days before likely moving downward to 3200.

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