Last week, the market remained in a range-bound consolidation, with a narrowing fluctuation of just 73 points. The formation of a weekly bearish candlestick—featuring a long upper shadow (46 points), short lower shadow (12 points), and a small body (15 points)—indicates that a major trend shift may be approaching. Typically, before a significant move, volatility contracts.

Key Insights:

  • Bearish Sentiment Prevails: On the weekly chart, the downtrend is clearly intact, and the market is still in a phase of descending consolidation. The daily chart continues to show a range-bound market (3250-3380), but the trend is weakening as highs keep getting lower.
  • Weak Uptrend Momentum: Last week’s resistance was unable to push above 3330, confirming that upward momentum remains extremely weak.
  • Iron Ore Leads the Way: Iron ore’s breakdown below recent lows suggests further downside potential. With iron ore leading the downtrend, steel prices are likely to follow suit, continuing their downward shift.

Looking ahead, the range of 3250-3380 remains in play, but the market’s weak structure suggests further downward movement is increasingly likely, especially with iron ore signaling further weakness.

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