Market Overview:

  • Last Night’s Market Movement: The market was briefly stirred by “Trump’s tariff news,” causing a slight rise in commodity prices, which then settled back to normal, rendering the news largely irrelevant.
  • Key Observations:
    1. Iron Ore continues to weaken slightly, with highs and lows progressively lower.
    2. Long-term contracts are seeing larger declines compared to near-term contracts, indicating a shifting market structure.

These changes suggest a potential for a downward breakout, with steel prices likely to move lower as market sentiment shifts.

Forecast:

  • This Week’s Focus: As the 01 contract approaches delivery, volatility tends to decrease, and the market will likely revert to reflecting supply and demand dynamics more clearly.
  • Policy Impact: If policy announcements (like rate cuts or reserve requirement reductions) are made, they could cause short-term fluctuations. Otherwise, a direct downward move may occur.

Strategy:

Maintain a sell-high, wait-for-breakdown strategy. Remain patient and let the market unfold according to the plan.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.