Russian billet exporters are exercising caution in their export pricing due to the fluctuations in the rouble, which strengthened to 99.4215 per dollar on 7 December, recovering from a low of 110 on 27 November. The earlier drop was the result of sanctions targeting several Russian banks, including Gazprombank. With the potential for further rouble strengthening, exporters are hesitant to reduce prices, despite pressure from weak demand and challenges in foreign markets.

Market Dynamics and Export Pricing

• Rouble Volatility: Exporters are closely monitoring exchange rates as a stronger rouble could limit the room for further price reductions.
• Key Rate Adjustments: Russia’s central bank is anticipated to raise its key interest rate on 20 December, adding another layer of complexity for exporters.
• Limited Trading Window: Deals must be finalized before the winter holiday break starting 29 December, with regular activity resuming after 13 January 2025.

Current Pricing Trends

• Turkey: Billet transactions were previously reported at $460/t cfr, but Turkish buyers last week sought prices between $450-455/t cfr.
• Egypt: Russian-origin billet was offered at $490/t cfr, reflecting payment challenges in the market.
• Black Sea FOB: Russian-origin billet was assessed at $440-450/t fob Black Sea, while wire rod prices ranged from $500-515/t fob, depending on market conditions and shipment terms.

Market Outlook

While price increases for Russian billet exports remain possible, they are limited by global demand weakness and downward pressures in key markets. Exporters will continue to adjust strategies based on rouble movements, interest rate policies, and market demand, while working within the restricted timeframe before the holiday season.