According to Kallanish, the Vietnamese hot rolled coil (HRC) market continues to weaken, with prices showing further declines. Formosa Ha Tinh Steel (FHS) announced on December 10 a price reduction for non-skin passed hot rolled coils scheduled for February shipment, setting the price at VND 13,145/kg (approximately $519/ton), significantly lower than last month. This price undercuts its main competitor, Hoa Phat Group, which previously announced a price of $527/ton for similar products.

New Supply and Anti-Dumping Measures Affecting Market Dynamics

The anticipated new supply of hot rolled coils in Vietnam and surrounding regions is drawing attention, alongside the pending results of anti-dumping investigations on Chinese hot rolled coil imports. A Hanoi-based trader noted that the imposition of anti-dumping duties on Chinese HRC would significantly boost Hoa Phat Group’s sales. He added, “By 2025, Hoa Phat will have exceptional market strength.”

Capacity Expansion and Market Outlook

Hoa Phat Group currently produces 3 million tons of HRC annually and is expected to add another 2.5 million tons of capacity next year. The group’s Dung Quang No. 2 hot strip mill is set to commence commercial production by the end of Q1 2025. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s Eastern Steel is also gearing up to produce its first batch of HRC by late December, with an annual capacity of 2 million tons, aimed at both domestic and export markets.

Despite the combined annual production capacity of FHS and Hoa Phat reaching 7 million tons, domestic demand for hot rolled coil in Vietnam is estimated to range between 13-14 million tons annually. With increasing production capacities and the potential implementation of anti-dumping policies, the competitive landscape of Vietnam’s hot rolled coil market is poised for significant shifts.