The Vietnamese hot rolled coil (HRC) market remains sluggish, with recent deals involving China-origin cargoes flagged as potentially risky due to pending anti-dumping (AD) investigations targeting imports from China and India. These measures could impose retroactive or preliminary duties on certain shipments if resolved before the cargoes arrive.

Key Transactions and Pricing

• Chinese Q235B HRC (1,500mm width): Booked on 5 December at $490/t cfr Vietnam for January/February shipments. This width falls under the AD investigation, raising concerns of possible duties.
• Wider Width HRC (2,000mm): Priced at $500-505/t cfr Vietnam for February shipment, this product remains outside the scope of the AD probe, attracting service centres seeking alternatives.
• SAE 1006 HRC:
  • 2mm+ thickness, December shipment: Offered at $500/t cfr but with no buyers so far.
  • Position cargoes: From a leading Chinese mill, priced at $510/t cfr.
  • 1,250mm width, January/February shipment: Offered at $505/t cfr.

Market Trends and Challenges

• Demand Pressure: The market remains soft, with SAE-grade HRC (2-2.7mm thickness) priced at $505-515/t cfr Vietnam, marking a $5/t decline week-on-week.
• Uncertainty Over AD Duties: Many market participants expect duties to be applied retroactively or preemptively. Traders are cautious about booking products that may fall under the anti-dumping scope.
• Shift to Wider HRC: Buyers increasingly opt for 2,000mm-width HRC, which remains outside the investigation’s purview, reflecting a strategic shift in procurement.

Outlook

With anti-dumping measures looming, Vietnamese importers are adopting a cautious approach. The focus on non-investigated widths and hesitation in purchasing SAE 1006 HRC underscore the market’s vulnerability to regulatory actions. Prices are expected to remain under pressure amid weak demand and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding AD cases.